狼之赞(一)
狼之赞
狼之赞(二)Broadcast:December21,2002
WorldEconomyStruggledThrough2002
Theworldeconomyin20021)reboundedfrom2)recession,butattheendoftheyearthereweresignsof3)decelerationandfearsthat2003maynotbeasstrongasthe2.5percentgrowthpredictedbymanyeconomists.
Worldstockmarketswithjustafewexceptionsweredownagainin2002,thethirdyearofdeclinesinwesternEuropeandtheUnitedStates.Businessleaderssaidtherewasstilltoomuch4)excesscapacityfromthehightechandtelemunicationsinvestmentboomofthe1990s.ThereweresignificantbankruptciesinAmerica,EuropeandJapan.
InSeptemberHorstKoehler,themanagingdirectoroftheInternationalMoaryFund,wascautiouslyoptimisticabouttheeconomicoutlook.Mr.KoehlerspoketoreportersafterameetinginWashingtonwithfinanceministersfromindustrialanddevelopingcountries.
"…andIwasencouragedbecausetherewasno6)doomandgloomdiscussion,butadifferentiatedanalysisandsomerealistionfidencethattherecoverywillcontinue,"hesaid.
2002wasarecoveryyearfromthe20017)downturnthathadbeendeepenedbytheSeptember11terroristattacksontheUnitedStates.
TheU.S.economy,whichaountsforover25percentofglobaloutput,expandedbyabouttwoandahalfpercentin2002.Strongergrowthwasexpectedfor2003.ButDavidBerson,chiefeconomistatFannieMaetheagencythatsupportsthehousingmarketintheUnitedStates,inDecember8)scaledbackhis20039)forecast.
"Eveniftheeconomy10)picksupnextyear,itisstillgoingtobeamoremodestexpansionthatwewouldnormallysee,"Mr.Bersonsaid."Inpartbecausethepartsoftheeconomynormallyjust11)boomaswestartaneconomicexpansion,housingandautosprobablywon'tboom,inpartbecausethey'vealreadybeenbooming.Therewasnobustforhousingandautos,asaresultwhentheeconomypicksupspeedthisnotcanbeacorrespondingboom."
ButeventhoughtheU.S.economyexperiencedasub-parrecovery,itsperformancewasconsiderablybetterthanJapanandGermany,theworld'ssecondandthirdbiggesteconomies.JimSmith,aprofessoroffinanceattheUniversityofNorthCarolina,saysJapanandGermanycan'tbeexpectedtocontributemuchtoaglobalpickup.
"Thestateoftheworldtodayisverymuchlikeitwasin1990and1991,"hesaid."JapanhitawallonDecember31,1989.Europewasweakin1990,1991."
Japanendstheyearstuckina12)deflationaspriceshavedeclinedforthreeconsecutiveyears.SeveralJapanesebanksaretechnically13)insolvent.Theeconomyisdecliningandthereislittle5)
hopeofimprovementnextyear.EconomistClydePrestowitz,anexpertonJapan,saystheJapanesemodelofstatedirectedgrowthsoadmiredinthe1980snolongerexists.
"Japanhadawinningformulafrom1950toabout1980.Itwassuchagoodformulathattheycouldn'tbeartogetridofit,"hesaid."Andsince1980theykeeptryingto15)patchuptheoldformula,butitisnotanappropriateformulaforthecircumstancesanditjustincreasinglydoesn'twork."
Remarkableasitseems,someeconomistsnowdescribeJapanasadecliningpowerthatis16)14)losingouttothenewpetitivethreatposedbyfastgrowingChina.Chinaregisteredoversevenpercentgrowththisyearandexpectstogrowatthesamepace2003.Chinahas17)displacedJapanasthebiggestAsianexportertotheUnitedStates.Chinaisattractinghugevolumesofforeigndirectinvestment,bysomemeasuresover50percentofthealltheforeigninvestmentinAsia.
Russia,whichforadecadehadaroughtransition,similarlyregisteredsignificantgrowthin2002.TheRussianeconomygrewby4.5percent,itsthirdconsecutiveyearofrobustexpansion.
LatinAmericaandAfricadidpoorly.Braziltotteredonthebrinkofrecessionasitbalancedthedemandsformoregovernmentspendingagainstthefiscalrestraintrequiredtoserviceitsdebt.AfricaregisteredthreepercentgrowthofallbuttheburdenoftheAIDSandwartranslatedintoonlymodestgainsinpercapitaine.
Atyear'sendthedollarwas10percentweakerthanitwasatthebeginningoftheyear.Goldwhichoftenmovesinrelationtothe20)turmoiloftheworld-wasatafive-yearhigh.Andoilhad
21)risentomorethan$30abarrelbecauseofunrestinVenezuelaandthepossibilityofwarinIraq.
BarryWoodVOAnews,Washington.19)18)